It's only two weeks into the 2021 college football season, and the chase for a spot in the playoffs is already chaotic.
With several upsets and key wins already this season, ESPN's Football Power Index has given six powerhouse teams who have been to the College Football Playoffs before a high likelihood to be in the upcoming playoffs. While Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Oregon, Clemson and Ohio State continue to win, other teams are rising for potential first-ever appearance in the CFB Playoffs since it was established in the 2014 season.
After the six previously mentioned schools, the team with the highest likelihood, according to ESPN's FPI, is the #10 Penn State Nittany Lions with a 15.3% chance. The subsequent five programs ESPN lists are teams that have also never appeared in the CFB Playoffs, including the #11 Florida Gators (15.2%); #7 Texas A&M (10%); #5 Iowa Hawkeyes (9.2%); #25 Michigan Wolverines (6.1%); and #22 Auburn Tigers (4.3%).
The team with the 12th-best percentage by ESPN's FPI for the playoffs is the #12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4.7%), who appeared for the first time in the playoffs last season. The #8 Cincinnati Bearcats have the best percentage to get into the playoffs as a non-power five conference member at 2.8%.
After two weeks of solid wins, the #20 Arkansas Razorbacks have the 23rd-best percentage to get into the College Football Playoffs at 0.2%. They are one spot below the Texas Longhorns, who have a 0.4% percentage to get into the playoffs. The Razorbacks defeated the Longhorns at home 40-21 last weekend.
These percentages are also based on the team's probability to win every game they have on their schedule for the remainder of the season. The Razorbacks have five games versus ranked opponents in the remainder of their schedule. Three of those remaining games come in three consecutive weeks at home versus #7 Texas A&M; at #2 Georgia; and at #17 Ole Miss. Arkansas still has the toughest remaining strength of schedule, according to ESPN.
ESPN FPI's rankings have the Razorbacks at a 0% chance to finish the remainder of the 2021 season with a perfect 12-0 record going into the SEC Championship. They also have a 1.2% chance to win SEC West, according to ESPN's FPI. Five of the seven teams in the SEC West Division are currently ranked, with Mississippi State and LSU being the only exceptions.
Arkansas, however, does have a 93.9% chance to win at least six games in this 2021 season, according to ESPN's FPI. The Razorbacks got a huge boost for a potential trip to a postseason bowl game for the first time since 2016 with the big win over the Longhorns. Even if Arkansas losses all of the upcoming match-ups versus ranked opponents, they could still finish with an overall record of 7-5.